Coronavirus Second Wave: Rural Areas At Higher Risk Than Cities Says Brighton University Academic

Saturday, 15 August 2020 06:00

By John Warburton @Warblefly

The Coronavirus, artist's impression: A.S.U. Biodesign Institute

A senior lecturer at the University of Brighton says so-called "herd immunity" won't be enough to protect areas such as rural Sussex if there's a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic.

That's according to Dr. Sarah Pitt, who is Principal Lecturer in Microbiology and Biomedical Science Practice.

In an article for "The Conversation", published this week, she warns that a combination of natural infection and the SARS-CoV-2 virus won't result in enough people being protected for the virus to die-out because it can't be transmitted.

According to her figures, an immunity level of some 85% of the population will be needed to give herd immunity against Covid-19.

But, until a properly working vaccine is widely available, this level of protection is only possible in dense, inner-city areas.

Additionally, part of the evidence on which her theory is based concerns the possibility of re-infection by the same virus.

Dr. Pitt points to research showing that some people can fall prey to the same strain of the common cold (also caused by a type of coronavirus) more than once in a single year.

To this, she adds that most countries have seen outbreaks of Covid-19 even when medics thought they had successfully controlled the rate of infection.

From this and other research, Dr. Pitt draws the conclusion that continuing public health measures such as social distancing, wearing masks and washing hands will be important for a long time to come.

These measures have the effect of reducing the virus's incidence to low enough levels to allow any outbreaks to be easily controlled.

Dr. Pitt suggests:

"It is possible that the ongoing pattern for COVID-19 will be more local pockets of infection, with even more cases likely during the winter months.

"Unless the first cases are found and isolated quickly though, these pockets will probably spread over quite wide geographical areas."

She concludes that the evidence for long-term illness caused by the virus, combined with typical rates of transmission, mean the SARS-CoV-2 virus could be endemic for a long time to come without a working vaccine.

"A vaccine could provide a way to end the pandemic, but with no prospect of natural herd immunity we could well be facing the threat of COVID-19 for a long time to come."

Dr. Pitt's full essay can be read here.