More than 51,000 people in the South East of England could be waiting for life saving heart diagnosis and treatment two years after the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, according to new modelling by the British Heart Foundation (BHF).
The charity’s forecast shows that the number of people anxiously waiting for heart care and diagnosis in the region in March 2022 could be 56% higher than the size of the waiting list before the pandemic began in the UK.
In February 2020, around 32,000 people were on cardiology waiting lists in the South East of England. The BHF predicts that, by March 2022, this could reach 51,033 due to the pandemic.
AREA |
FEBRUARY 2020 CARDIOLOGY WAITING LIST |
MARCH 2022 FORECASTED CARDIOLOGY WAITING LIST |
PERCENTAGE DIFFERENCE |
NHS BRIGHTON AND HOVE CCG |
1,228 |
1,220 |
-1% |
NHS OXFORDSHIRE CCG |
1,837 |
4,403 |
140% |
NHS PORTSMOUTH CCG |
497 |
794 |
60% |
NHS BUCKINGHAMSHIRE CCG |
1,380 |
3,447 |
150% |
NHS BERKSHIRE WEST CCG |
2,041 |
3,698 |
81% |
NHS WEST SUSSEX CCG |
5,273 |
9,107 |
73% |
NHS KENT AND MEDWAY CCG |
5,885 |
8,445 |
44% |
NHS SURREY HEARTLANDS CCG |
4,837 |
8,153 |
69% |
NHS EAST SUSSEX CCG |
2,514 |
3,990 |
59% |
NHS FRIMLEY CCG |
2,317 |
6,298 |
172% |
NHS HAMPSHIRE, SOUTHAMPTON AND ISLE OF WIGHT CCG |
4,893 |
4,120 |
-16% |
The forecast is of a worse case but possible scenario where the NHS in England doesn’t get enough investment and is under increased pressure from Covid-19 or a bad winter.
It comes as a new report by charity, The Untold Heartbreak, reveals that without decisive action now, the BHF estimates it will take between three and five years for the heart care backlog in England to recover to pre-pandemic levels.
Before the pandemic began, around 225,000 people in England were on cardiology waiting lists for heart diagnosis or treatment, while around 8,400 people were waiting for heart surgery.
The charity warns that without immediate intervention, there is a risk that thousands more people could die from heart and circulatory diseases.
Professor Sir Nilesh Samani, Medical Director at the British Heart Foundation, said:
“Even before the pandemic began, waiting lists for vital heart care were far too long. As this report shows, the pandemic has since pushed the NHS towards breaking point, with devastating consequences for the 970,000 people living with heart and circulatory diseases in the South East.
“Delay in diagnosis and treatment of cardiovascular diseases is not just about improving symptoms, however important that is – it is about saving lives. Tragically, we have already seen thousands of extra deaths from heart and circulatory diseases during the pandemic, and delays to care have likely contributed to this terrible toll.
“At this critical moment, the Government must act now to avoid more lives lost to treatable heart conditions. Addressing the growing heart care backlog is only the start. We must also see a clear plan, alongside significant and ongoing investment, to build capacity back into the NHS and address the pandemic’s impact on health workers. Getting this right would avoid preventable heartbreak for many families.”
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